President Vote 2012 By Group
by Arthur Hu
Survey of 26,565 voters by Edison Research as printed by UK's Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2229225/Presidential-election-2012-Record-number-Hispanic-voters-head-polls.html
Here is the unsorted breakdown:
sample pop demo repub ratio
men 47 45 52 0.865385
women 53 17 55 44 1.25
white 72 63 39 59 0.661017
black 13 12 93 6 15.5
hispanic 10 17 71 27 2.62963
asian 3 5 73 26 2.807692
other 2 58 38 1.526316
18-29 19 60 37 1.621622
30-44 27 52 45 1.155556
45-64 38 47 51 0.921569
65+ 16 44 56 0.785714
college 47 50 48 1.041667
non-coll 53 51 47 1.085106
Israel 22 57 0.385965
Muslim 72 11 6.545455
These give estimates of how Israelis voted,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/us-presidential-election-americans-israel_n_2078983.html
One recent survey estimated that more than four-fifths of expatriate voters here cast absentee ballots for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/the-axis/in-u-s-election-only-israel-and-pakistan-would-have-voted-against-obama.premium-1.475998 Haretz says they have a poll that shows 57 percent of Israeli voters going for Romney while only 22 preferred Obama.
and Muslims:
http://creepingsharia.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/poll-40-of-muslims-in-us-want-sharia-46-say-criminalize-blasphemy-incl-death-penalty/ showed Muslim voters favoring Obama by 72 to 11, though other polls seem to indicate they like Ron Paul even more, since Paul likes Israel even less and Iran even more than Obama.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Tracking-the-American-Musl-by-Abdus-Sattar-Ghaza-121015-442.html
Tracking the American Muslim vote in 2012 election 10/16/2012 By Abdus-Sattar Ghazali
Four years ago, Obama enjoyed overwhelming support from Muslim voters -- 89 percent Muslims voted for him.
Catholics:
http://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=16173
Obama won Catholic vote, regular churchgoers chose Romney
CWN - November 07, 2012
Jewish:
http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/11/07/3111381/fighting-over-every-percentile-arguing-about-the-jewish-vote-and-exit-polls
Fighting over every percentage point: Arguing about the Jewish vote and exit polls
By Ron Kampeas · November 7, 2012
"Expect four more years of tussling between Jewish Republicans and Democrats about the meaning of Obama’s dip from 78 percent Jewish support cited in 2008 exit polls to 69 percent this year in the
national exit polls run by a media consortium."
Ob Ro
jewish 69 30 (jta)
catholic 50 48 (cnn)
protestant 57 42 (cnn)
no religion 70 26 (cnn)
Sorted by the Obama ratio:
Sorted by the Obama ratio:
pop demo repub ratio vs white
black 13 93 6 15.5 23.4
Muslim 72 11 6.5 9.9
asian 3 73 26 2.8 4.2
hispanic 10 71 27 2.6 4.0
no religion 70 26 (cnn)
jewish 69 30 (jta)
18-29 19 60 37 1.6 2.5
other 2 58 38 1.5 2.3
women 53 55 44 1.3 1.9
30-44 27 52 45 1.2 1.7
non-coll 53 51 47 1.1 1.6
college 47 50 48 1.0 1.6
catholic 50 48 (cnn)
45-64 38 47 51 0.9 1.4
men 47 45 52 0.9 1.3
65+ 16 44 56 0.8 1.2
white 72 39 59 0.7 1.0
protestant 42 57 (cnn)
Israel 22 57 0.4 0.6
Not that long ago before the 1990s, Asians were pretty reliably Republican, and until recently were still only slightly more Democratic than whites. This exit poll shows that Asians are 4 times more likely than whites to favor Democrats, the same as for Hispanics.
Muslims prefer Obama by 10 to 1, which seems to show they consider Barack to be one of their own even if he's been reluctant to run as a friend of Muslims. The most supportive group are the Blacks, which if you compare to the white ratio of just 70%, come out as 23 times more likely to favor Obama.
Only the Israelis favored Romney by more than white Americans, which indicates that Israelis are certainly not convinced of Obama's claims that he is as true and loyal friend of Israel as he is of the Palestineans.
Most liberal religions after Muslims was Jewish and non-Religions, Catholics were about evenly split as I've noted they are pretty close to average American in anything, while Protestants who seem to weigh more the conservative than the liberal ones went for Romney, even they think he belongs to a weird Mormon cult religion, at least it's a conservative one instead of Obama's fake Black Liberation Theology.
Voting Patterns 1992-1994
Now I've tracked down exit polls by race going back to 1992 to see where the shifts are. I have a different way a tracking. First I compute the Democrat/ Republican ratio for each group. Then I divide by the rate for whites, so we have an instant measure of which groups are more likely to favor democrats so that 1.0 would be same as whites, and 2.0 would be twice as much.
What the data shows is that whites have been shifting from an even 1.0 in 1992 to 2/3 favoring Republican this year.
Asians used to favor Republicans, but then were about the same, and flipped for Democrats starting with Gore in 2000, with the latest election 4 times more Democratic than the whites, about as liberal as the Hispanics. I was somehow under the impression that Asians were still pretty close to whites, but that hasn't been the case since 1996.
Hispanics have always favored Democrats, but have grown from 2.5 to 4 times
Blacks historically were 10 times more democratic, but this increased to a factor of 24-30 with Obama
white 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 .66
------------------------------------------
Minorities compare the D/R ratio to whites
black 8.5 7.5 15 8.3 30 24
asian 1/1.8 1.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 4.3
hispanic 2.5 3.7 2.3 1.6 2.8 4.0
Table: Each year 1992 to 2012
2012 Obam Romney vs white
black 93 6 23.5
asian 73 26 4.3
hispanic 71 27 4.0
white 39 59 1.0
2008 Obama McCain vs white
black 95 4 30.4
hisp 67 31 2.8
asian 62 35 2.3
white 43 55 1.0
2004 Kerry Bush vs white
Black 86% 14% 8.3
Asian 64% 34% 2.6
Latino 54% 45% 1.6
White 42% 57% 1.0
2000 Gore Bush vs white
Black 90 8 14.5
Hispanic 62 35 2.3
Asian 55 41 1.7
White 42 54 1.0
Asians favor democrats 55 to 42
1996 Clin Dole Perot vs white
Black 84 12 4 7.5
Hispanic 72 21 6 3.7
Asian 43 48 8 1.0
White 43 46 9 1.0
Asians are only slightly more republican
than whites 48-46
1992 clint Bush Perot vs white
Black 83 10 7 8.5
Hispanic 61 25 2.5
White 39 40 20 1.0
Asian 31 55 15 1/1.8
Asians are more republican than whites 55-40
Now it common wisdom that minorities don't vote at the same rate as whites, but the reality is that since the civil rights era, not only literacy rates for blacks approached that of whites, but the voting rate is about the same, with white voters only 14% above their population, and blacks 8% above. The TWO groups that vote at 0.5 or 1/2 are the Hispanics and Asians that are largely immigrant, so the major problem there are the large populations of immigrants who are not citizens eligible to vote:
Table: Relative voting rate
Race voter pop ratio vs white
White 72 63 1.14 1.00
Black 13 12 1.08 0.95
Hispanic 10 17 0.59 0.51
Asian 3 5 0.60 0.53
by Arthur Hu
Survey of 26,565 voters by Edison Research as printed by UK's Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2229225/Presidential-election-2012-Record-number-Hispanic-voters-head-polls.html
Here is the unsorted breakdown:
sample pop demo repub ratio
men 47 45 52 0.865385
women 53 17 55 44 1.25
white 72 63 39 59 0.661017
black 13 12 93 6 15.5
hispanic 10 17 71 27 2.62963
asian 3 5 73 26 2.807692
other 2 58 38 1.526316
18-29 19 60 37 1.621622
30-44 27 52 45 1.155556
45-64 38 47 51 0.921569
65+ 16 44 56 0.785714
college 47 50 48 1.041667
non-coll 53 51 47 1.085106
Israel 22 57 0.385965
Muslim 72 11 6.545455
These give estimates of how Israelis voted,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/us-presidential-election-americans-israel_n_2078983.html
One recent survey estimated that more than four-fifths of expatriate voters here cast absentee ballots for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/the-axis/in-u-s-election-only-israel-and-pakistan-would-have-voted-against-obama.premium-1.475998 Haretz says they have a poll that shows 57 percent of Israeli voters going for Romney while only 22 preferred Obama.
and Muslims:
http://creepingsharia.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/poll-40-of-muslims-in-us-want-sharia-46-say-criminalize-blasphemy-incl-death-penalty/ showed Muslim voters favoring Obama by 72 to 11, though other polls seem to indicate they like Ron Paul even more, since Paul likes Israel even less and Iran even more than Obama.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Tracking-the-American-Musl-by-Abdus-Sattar-Ghaza-121015-442.html
Tracking the American Muslim vote in 2012 election 10/16/2012 By Abdus-Sattar Ghazali
Four years ago, Obama enjoyed overwhelming support from Muslim voters -- 89 percent Muslims voted for him.
Catholics:
http://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=16173
Obama won Catholic vote, regular churchgoers chose Romney
CWN - November 07, 2012
Jewish:
http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/11/07/3111381/fighting-over-every-percentile-arguing-about-the-jewish-vote-and-exit-polls
Fighting over every percentage point: Arguing about the Jewish vote and exit polls
By Ron Kampeas · November 7, 2012
"Expect four more years of tussling between Jewish Republicans and Democrats about the meaning of Obama’s dip from 78 percent Jewish support cited in 2008 exit polls to 69 percent this year in the
national exit polls run by a media consortium."
Ob Ro
jewish 69 30 (jta)
catholic 50 48 (cnn)
protestant 57 42 (cnn)
no religion 70 26 (cnn)
Sorted by the Obama ratio:
Sorted by the Obama ratio:
pop demo repub ratio vs white
black 13 93 6 15.5 23.4
Muslim 72 11 6.5 9.9
asian 3 73 26 2.8 4.2
hispanic 10 71 27 2.6 4.0
no religion 70 26 (cnn)
jewish 69 30 (jta)
18-29 19 60 37 1.6 2.5
other 2 58 38 1.5 2.3
women 53 55 44 1.3 1.9
30-44 27 52 45 1.2 1.7
non-coll 53 51 47 1.1 1.6
college 47 50 48 1.0 1.6
catholic 50 48 (cnn)
45-64 38 47 51 0.9 1.4
men 47 45 52 0.9 1.3
65+ 16 44 56 0.8 1.2
white 72 39 59 0.7 1.0
protestant 42 57 (cnn)
Israel 22 57 0.4 0.6
Not that long ago before the 1990s, Asians were pretty reliably Republican, and until recently were still only slightly more Democratic than whites. This exit poll shows that Asians are 4 times more likely than whites to favor Democrats, the same as for Hispanics.
Muslims prefer Obama by 10 to 1, which seems to show they consider Barack to be one of their own even if he's been reluctant to run as a friend of Muslims. The most supportive group are the Blacks, which if you compare to the white ratio of just 70%, come out as 23 times more likely to favor Obama.
Only the Israelis favored Romney by more than white Americans, which indicates that Israelis are certainly not convinced of Obama's claims that he is as true and loyal friend of Israel as he is of the Palestineans.
Most liberal religions after Muslims was Jewish and non-Religions, Catholics were about evenly split as I've noted they are pretty close to average American in anything, while Protestants who seem to weigh more the conservative than the liberal ones went for Romney, even they think he belongs to a weird Mormon cult religion, at least it's a conservative one instead of Obama's fake Black Liberation Theology.
Voting Patterns 1992-1994
Now I've tracked down exit polls by race going back to 1992 to see where the shifts are. I have a different way a tracking. First I compute the Democrat/ Republican ratio for each group. Then I divide by the rate for whites, so we have an instant measure of which groups are more likely to favor democrats so that 1.0 would be same as whites, and 2.0 would be twice as much.
What the data shows is that whites have been shifting from an even 1.0 in 1992 to 2/3 favoring Republican this year.
Asians used to favor Republicans, but then were about the same, and flipped for Democrats starting with Gore in 2000, with the latest election 4 times more Democratic than the whites, about as liberal as the Hispanics. I was somehow under the impression that Asians were still pretty close to whites, but that hasn't been the case since 1996.
Hispanics have always favored Democrats, but have grown from 2.5 to 4 times
Blacks historically were 10 times more democratic, but this increased to a factor of 24-30 with Obama
Table: Asian Democrat Ratio vs White
White shows D/R ratio
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012White shows D/R ratio
white 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 .66
------------------------------------------
Minorities compare the D/R ratio to whites
black 8.5 7.5 15 8.3 30 24
asian 1/1.8 1.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 4.3
hispanic 2.5 3.7 2.3 1.6 2.8 4.0
Table: Each year 1992 to 2012
2012 Obam Romney vs white
black 93 6 23.5
asian 73 26 4.3
hispanic 71 27 4.0
white 39 59 1.0
2008 Obama McCain vs white
black 95 4 30.4
hisp 67 31 2.8
asian 62 35 2.3
white 43 55 1.0
2004 Kerry Bush vs white
Black 86% 14% 8.3
Asian 64% 34% 2.6
Latino 54% 45% 1.6
White 42% 57% 1.0
2000 Gore Bush vs white
Black 90 8 14.5
Hispanic 62 35 2.3
Asian 55 41 1.7
White 42 54 1.0
Asians favor democrats 55 to 42
1996 Clin Dole Perot vs white
Black 84 12 4 7.5
Hispanic 72 21 6 3.7
Asian 43 48 8 1.0
White 43 46 9 1.0
Asians are only slightly more republican
than whites 48-46
1992 clint Bush Perot vs white
Black 83 10 7 8.5
Hispanic 61 25 2.5
White 39 40 20 1.0
Asian 31 55 15 1/1.8
Asians are more republican than whites 55-40
Minorities Increase In Electorate Population
The Pew Research Center released a report A Milestone En Route to a Majority Minority Nation
by Paul Taylor and D’Vera Cohn which predicts that non-white minorities will be a majority by 2050. They are currently 37% of population but 28% of the votes.Now it common wisdom that minorities don't vote at the same rate as whites, but the reality is that since the civil rights era, not only literacy rates for blacks approached that of whites, but the voting rate is about the same, with white voters only 14% above their population, and blacks 8% above. The TWO groups that vote at 0.5 or 1/2 are the Hispanics and Asians that are largely immigrant, so the major problem there are the large populations of immigrants who are not citizens eligible to vote:
Table: Relative voting rate
Race voter pop ratio vs white
White 72 63 1.14 1.00
Black 13 12 1.08 0.95
Hispanic 10 17 0.59 0.51
Asian 3 5 0.60 0.53
This table shows how the population has changed since 1960 and where it is likely to be in 2050, as well as what the 18 yr old population is estimated to be.
Table: Population by race 1960, 2011, and 2050
1960 2011 2050 18 yr olds
white 85 63 47 56
hisp 3.5 17 29 21
black 11 12 13 15
asian 0.6 5 9 4
African-American students whose primary language is English perform significantly worse in math and reading than black students who speak another language at home — typically immigrants or refugees — according to new numbers released by Seattle Public Schools.