Thursday, August 27, 2009

The 787 Dreamliner Will Fly Before Years End. Right.

Boeing sets schedule for 787 1st flight Boeing Co. said Thursday its long-delayed 787 jetliner will be ready for its maiden test flight by year's end and its first delivery in the fourth quarter next year.


AP Manufacturing Writer

Boeing Co. said Thursday its long-delayed 787 jetliner will be ready for its maiden test flight by year's end and its first delivery in the fourth quarter next year.


Reminds me of the rolling 3 month deadline we did in 80s software heyday. We'll ship 3 months from now, even if that was what we said a year ago. Vaporware they used to call it. They haven't even confirmed how they're going to fix the wing, let alone start tearing the wing down to put the fix in, and it's going to fly in 3 months??? You what they say in software, the last 10% takes 50% of the time.

Here's Boeing's record on time between roll out and first flight. It's usually between 1 and 4 months, but the 787 is way, way off by over 2 years. Is it really true that the first roll out was fake, rolling out an unfinished shell of an airplane just for show? The new delay in date they're quoting now is the same as back in 2007, 3 or 4 months away, except they didn't promise they would have to fix the wings back then.

Rollout First Flight Days Months
Boeing B-17 7/1/1935 7/28/1935 27 1
Boeing B-52 #N/A 4/15/1952 #N/A
Boeing 747 9/30/1968 2/9/1969 132 4
Boeing 707 5/14/1954 7/15/1954 62 2
Boeing 727 11/27/1962 2/9/1963 74 2
Boeing 737 1/17/1967 4/9/1967 82 3
Boeing 757 1/13/1982 2/19/1982 37 1
Boeing 767 8/4/1981 9/26/1981 53 2
Boeing 777 4/9/1994 6/12/1994 64 2
Initial schedule
Boeing 787 7/8/2007 8/27/2007 50 2
August 2009 schedule
Boeing 787 7/8/2007 12/20/200 896 30
Cost overrun is defined as excess of actual cost over budget. Cost overrun is also sometimes called "cost escalation," "cost increase," or "budget overrun." However, cost escalation and increases do not necessarily result in cost overruns if cost escalation is included in the budget.

Cost overrun is common in infrastructure, building, and technology projects. One of the most comprehensive studies [1] of cost overrun that exists found that 9 out of 10 projects had overrun, overruns of 50 to 100 percent were common, overrun was found in each of 20 nations and five continents covered by the study, and overrun had been constant for the 70 years for which data were available. For IT projects, an industry study by the Standish Group (2004) found that average cost overrun was 43 percent, 71 percent of projects were over budget, over time, and under scope, and total waste was estimated at US$55 billion per year in the US alone.

Spectacular examples of cost overrun are the Sydney Opera House with 1,400 percent, and the Concorde supersonic aeroplane with 1,100 percent. The cost overrun of Boston's Big Dig was 275 percent, or US$11 billion. The cost overrun for the Channel tunnel between the UK and France was 80 percent for construction costs and 140 percent for financing costs.

Three types of explanation of cost overrun exist: technical, psychological, and political-economic. Technical explanations account for cost overrun in terms of imperfect forecasting techniques, inadequate data, etc. Psychological explanations account for overrun in terms of optimism bias with forecasters. Finally, political-economic explanations see overrun as the result of strategic misrepresentation of scope and/or budgets.

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