Saturday, May 19, 2012

WSJ: Minority Births Are New Majority, Hispanics, Blacks and Asians

WSJ: Minority Births Are New Majority Wall Street Journal May 17, 2012 Conor Dougherty, Miriam Jordan (based on Census data)

I noticed back in the 80s and 90s colleges were falling below 50% white, mostly because of large numbers of Asians combined with strong affirmative action. Now the trend is that non-white births are the majority, though it has taken a while. Hispanics are now the 2nd  largest minority. Asians are 4.6% nationally, but are 3rd largest minority in states like California and probably Washington if I had to guess. Major impact on Asians is that when more are born in America, there will be more assimilated Asians who vote more. I was born in 1958, so I am a tiny, tiny percentage of Asian Americans my age (every year brings more immigrants my age, but  the number who were born is fixed) who speak english with an American accent, but 185,055 Asians were born in the US in 2011

Share of  US Births by race, 2011
White non-hispanic 49.6% 1.05 M
Hispanic any race 26.2% 613,012
African American 15.3%
Asian 4.6%  188,055
American Indian Alaska Native 1.7% 66,356

Chart shows share  of births declining from 55% in 2005 to  49.6% in 2011

Other points:

The dynamic of minorities is no longer black and white. Actually it has been mostly Hispanic/Asian in places like California for a long time.

White population is barely above replacement level where births exceed deaths

Another point I noticed for Asians, who have a much lower number of children but a higher birth rate than whites because most arrive as immigrants as young adults which is prime child bearing age.  Hispanic women have 2.4 babies each, which is more than 1.8 for whites, but it is the age that really matters

Nebraska population grew by 7% but Hispanic population was up by 77% 2000-2010

Births are more of a driving force than immigration

Schuyler Nebraska was settled by Irish and Germans. Now 90% of K-3 grades are Hispanic, and  6 of 10 students in the high school are Hispanic.

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